Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 11 September 2019

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Scrutiny of Tax Expenditures (Resumed)

Mr. Seamus Coffey:

I do not think our views on overheating have changed dramatically since June. As we have said previously we have an unusually uncertain economic environment. At times one can be talking about a severe negative impact from a hard Brexit.

On potential overheating pressures, the short-term indicators of the Irish economy continue to indicate strong economic performance, be it the labour market, the number employed, and spending. In the labour market we are possibly beginning to see some overheating pressures beginning to emerge with wage pressures, although it is nothing of significant note. Looking at the changes in wage growth and the direction it is taking, it could be that, if the economy does not hit a big speed bump in the next 12 to 18 months, we could see those pressures emerging. Equally, in the population data being produced by the CSO, we had a significant net inward migration.

My colleague, Dr. Casey, spoke about trying to assess our position in the economic cycle. That is extraordinarily difficult to do. As we think the Commission's approach is not appropriate, we have adopted this principles approach. Net migration is not a bad indicator of where the economy is in the economic cycle. When an economy is performing strongly or perhaps excessively, there can be very high levels of net inward migration, as we had up to 2007 and 2008 and then net outward migration during the crash. Now we are beginning to see it pick up again. We are seeing pressures emerge in housing and other areas. I do not think our views on overheating have changed since June. We are beginning to see a gradual overheating in wage levels in the labour market. We have a heat map and the colour orange is beginning to appear in the income indicators in the labour market that could point to problems.

I did not get the Deputy's final question.

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