Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 4 July 2019

Public Accounts Committee

2017 Annual Report of the Comptroller and Auditor General
Chapter 21 - Accounts of the National Treasury Management Agency
National Treasury Management Agency Financial Statements 2018

9:00 am

Mr. Conor O'Kelly:

I do not mean to say this glibly but whether the issue is Brexit, Italy, corporate tax or some other challenge, Ireland is a small open economy which is heavily indebted and which relies on international investors for 90% of its borrowings, so Ireland has to be in the business of permanent contingency with regard to our debt. Something will end up hitting us. It may be Brexit, Italy or, more than likely, something which we cannot even think of today. People talk about whether the bond market or some other group is predicting a recession. I will give my prediction for a recession. The chance of a recession in Ireland is 100%. We cannot afford not to have a contingency in place. We have to remain vigilant to that and we do this by maintaining significant cash buffers at all times and by smoothing out the profile of the debt to minimise refinancing risks in the future.

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