Paschal Donohoe (Dublin Central, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

My view on that is formed by the phasing in respect of what will happen in the OECD. The work plan in respect of the debate on global corporate taxation is not due to be concluded until the end of this year and decisions relating to that are not due to be completed until the end of next year. For those reasons, I see Brexit as being a more imminent risk.

In terms of the effect it will have on our tax revenues and competitiveness in the medium term, change is coming. I made that clear in a speech I gave at an international tax conference in Dublin Castle some weeks ago. There are changes under way, driven by larger countries in particular, that want to examine the way in which global tax policy is conducted. That is why I believe it is so important, if external circumstances allow, that we move into a surplus position and begin to grow that surplus over time.

As to whether it will be a threat to our prospects, at this point in time it is difficult to form a definitive view on that because the effect it could have on us will be in terms of the trade-offs between taxing where value is created. If that is maintained, that shows the ability of our corporate tax over time to stay at current levels, or even grow, versus decisions made regarding where tax is levied. It is the trade-off between both of those two elements that will determine the net effect on our corporate tax take. It is simply too early for anyone to be able to say where that will end up, which is why in the interim we need to make changes similar to those we made on VAT and stamp duty and be in a surplus position in our national finances.