Pearse Doherty (Donegal, Sinn Fein) | Oireachtas source

I am sure many viewers, if anyone is watching, are getting chills down their spine when they see Colm McCarthy before an Oireachtas committee. They might be asking are we heading for bust again. Mr. McCarthy's presentation today is about avoiding unplanned austerity. It is timely given our current position in the cycle. I welcome his presentation and that of Dr. Kinsella.

My time is brief, and it is a pity we do not have longer, but we have to discuss the summer economic statement. I will begin on that topic. We can only work with the statistics provided. If I look at the summer economic statement, and I am sure that the witnesses have glanced through it, table 3 gives budgetary projections for 2018 to 2024 which set out the key fiscal metrics consistent with SPU 2019. These projections represent the basis for the summer economic statement. However, the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council, IFAC, says:

The expenditure forecasts are not credible: they are based on technical assumptions which do not reflect either likely future policies or the future cost of meeting existing commitments. The technical assumptions used imply an implausible slowdown in expenditure growth, overstating the likely budget balance.

This is extremely frustrating. We have a document here that is fantasy. We look at expenditure, budget surplus and so on and we are having a debate, which Dr. Kinsella says is the wrong kind of debate, about the €700 million which the ESRI says is not there and IFAC says is fantasy. The Government tells us that these voices are being listened to but it is nonsense. What is the witnesses' view on this? It is the basis from which we need to build up and consider policy choices and options to see where the threats and risks really are.