Dr. Mark Cassidy:

I will respond briefly because it is an important issue. The deposit requirement is 10% for first-time buyers. It is important to highlight that because some people think it is 20%. There is strong evidence regarding the risk of default and how that is dependent on the deposit requirement. The Central Bank has published a lot of analytical evidence on this, which shows that when the loan to value is above 85%, the risk of those borrowers getting into hot water increases substantially. It means any reduction in house prices or any economic shock to incomes can significantly impact on the ability of that borrower to repay. We introduce risk to take account of the different situations. The deposit requirement, therefore, is 10% for the first-time buyer in comparison with 20% more generally. We do have strong financial stability reasons for the deposit requirements. The 100% mortgages of a decade ago were a bad idea in hindsight. They certainly contributed to the crisis.

On the question regarding the positives and the opportunities as a result of Brexit, which I did not get to earlier, I gave some figures earlier, which incorporated one of the positives that nets off some of the disadvantages, namely, the potential for more inward foreign direct investment, either by firms that are currently based in the UK and wish to sell into the European market and will not be able to do so from the UK market or new firms wanting to sell in, which otherwise would have gone to the UK. Ms Fitzgerald discussed financial services, which I have less in mind in this regard. We have a thriving financial services sector, mostly located in Dublin. I am thinking more about direct investment that could be spread more regionally across the economy.

The ESRI estimates that Brexit could result in a positive medium-term impact of approximately 3% which is already incorporated in our numbers. As there will be that positive foreign direct investment, FDI, effect if there is a deal or not, I do not know of any economic benefit that will result from a no-deal Brexit. I see no other opportunities.

I did not address the prospects for the UK economy; rather, I discussed the exchange rate. The general outlook for the UK economy, in the event that there is a no-deal Brexit, is very negative. Bank of England estimates suggest output could be approximately 10% less. We are already seeing investment, exports and output in the United Kingdom being significantly affected.

If there is anything I overlooked or missed, I will be happy to come back in.