Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees
Wednesday, 19 June 2019
Seanad Committee on the Withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union
Engagement with the Central Bank of Ireland
Dr. Mark Cassidy:
Yes, I am coming to that point. I will also address the issue relating to multinationals in that context as the concerns in regard to that sector are related to the upside scenario. In the event that a deal can be agreed, the outlook for the economy remains strong. The economy is approaching full employment. The latest quarterly unemployment figures, which I prefer to the monthly ones, point to an unemployment rate of 5%. Some of that data point to a unemployment rate of 4.5%. As the economy gets closer to full employment, there is a risk of overheating pressures, which manifest in wages and prices increasing at too fast a rate and cause competitiveness problems and difficulties for firms in terms of hiring additional workers. We are seeing an increase in vacancy rates, particularly among multinational firms. Our primary concern in that regard is the risk of overheating. We do not see it currently in the economy. Earlier, a comparison was made between now and 2006-07. We have very different economic circumstances now. The economy is much better shape now than it was then. Economic growth is not now being fuelled by domestic credit expansion or by inflows of money from abroad. We do not have an over-inflated construction sector, property sector or banking sector, such as we did in 2006-07. Nevertheless, overheating remains a concern that we will constantly monitor. The best indicator is wages. Currently, wages are increasing at approximately 3% per annum, which we think is a welcome rate of increase. We will keep an eye to the wage rate increase to ensure it does not begin to increase too fast because in that scenario multinational and Irish-owned firms would find it much more difficult to attract labour.
There are probably one or two questions in respect of which I will need to come back in later. Ms Fitzgerald will comment now on the financial system issues.
No comments