Dr. Mark Cassidy:

Every question is extremely important and relevant. I will group them and provide the baseline by providing what the Chairman asked for in our overall macro estimates if the no-deal scenario materialises. I will then move on to some of the questions about particular regions, sectors and issues such as, for example, the land bridge and how it might impact in different parts of the economy. There were questions about the property market and how the Central Bank's rules might play a role in that regard. There was a question about what might happen if a deal was agreed, as well as the potential opportunities and risks for the multinational sector in the tightening economy in such a scenario. I will pass on to Ms Fitzgerald some of the questions about the financial system, including some of the ones about our political influence. We can only speak about our influence at European fora, but Ms Fitzgerald will also discuss issues related to new firms in the financial sector coming here. If there are issues that have been overlooked, I will try to address them.

I will give more detail of what we think might happen in the event that there is a no-deal Brexit. We distinguish between scenarios in which some deal can be agreed to. In that case, of course, there will be a transition period until the end of 2020. There will be no material, immediate negative effect on the economy and there will be much more time for the economy to adjust. The effects are material but probably manageable and spread in the medium term. If a deal can be agreed to, similar to the withdrawal agreement, we would still expect strong economic growth in the short term, as per our central forecast. On the negative impact, compared to a situation where there had been no Brexit, in the medium term we would expect output to be around 1.75% less. There would be just under 20,000 fewer jobs. It is important to emphasise that this is in the context of positive growth elsewhere in the economy. Therefore, we would still expect the economy to grow in the medium term.

Most importantly, we think the effects would be materially worse in the event that there was no deal. They would be front-loaded in the sense that we would see most of the negative effects immediately.

The reason is that one would have a very sharp immediate downturn in the UK economy, as scenarios produced by the Bank of England show. In addition, one would have tariffs on Irish exports and imports imposed from day one and those tariffs would be extremely high, in particular, for the food and agriculture sectors. One would also have immediate disruptions, whether regulatory checks or increased documentary compliance, and all the forms of additional bureaucracy and delays in moving goods into and out of the country. These would have material effects.

A couple of questions were asked about the economy's preparedness. Evidence shows that the fact that the economy is not yet fully prepared, in particular small and medium-sized enterprises but also elements of the trading infrastructure, means that the most negative effects from what are known as non-tariff barriers tend to be felt immediately. Over time, the economy and businesses become better able to adjust to these new procedures but the immediate impact can be disruptive. The disorderly no-deal scenario could knock four percentage points of economic growth in the first year alone. To put that in context, we expect economic growth of approximately 4.25% this year and slightly more than 3.5% next year. We would still expect some modest positive growth in respect of a no-deal scenario but essentially it would knock off almost all growth in the first couple of years. The effect over the medium term would be that output would be a little over 6% lower in a no-deal Brexit scenario and there would be approximately 110,000 fewer jobs compared with a scenario in which Brexit did not take place. The effects are immediate.