Professor Michael McMahon:

Deputy Michael McGrath's question also addressed the longer term, which is very important. I wanted to add two things in that regard. One is that the secretariat is undertaking larger research to think about the impact in particular of pensions, demographics and health spending on longer term projections. Hopefully, we will be in a position to report on that in future sessions. I make two points to emphasise what Mr. Tutty just said. Even though some of these are long-term issues, they are also biting in the medium term. By 2023, for example, the stand-still scenario presents a much less rosy picture for the surplus, largely as a result of these pressures. Of course, the national development plan is built into the stand-still scenario and into the forecast.

That is to be encouraged and welcomed. One point of concern mentioned in the report is that overruns of some of those plans will squeeze out other future plans for capital expenditure, which also needs to be thought about.