Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 11 June 2019

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Fiscal Assessment Report: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council

Photo of Michael McGrathMichael McGrath (Cork South Central, Fianna Fail) | Oireachtas source

On the medium-term fiscal projections, Mr. Coffey says the Government's medium-term plans are not credible. Until recently, we had only three-year projection on the fiscal side. In April's SPU, we got five-year projections. Mr. Coffey makes the point that there is a technical assumption underpinning it that current spending will grow by 2.5%. Considering that we have a national planning framework which runs to 2040, a national development plan which runs to 2027 and a good handle on the demographic changes that are well under way and given the current pressures in the health sector, including home care, caring for the elderly, nursing home care and so on, can Mr. Coffey talk us through how the council reached the conclusion that the plans were not credible? The council's report deals with the fact that the ratio of workers to pensioners will change significantly in the next 20 to 30 years. There will be fewer workers paying into the tax pot to fund pensions. As such, do we need a radical overhaul of how we do medium and, indeed, longer-term fiscal projections and budgeting?

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