Dr. Frank O'Mara:

That is basically the case, yes. Deputy Cahill asked where the proportion of the beef to the dairy herd might be in four or five years. We do not have a crystal ball but we did an exercise recently in which we tried to model how the dairy and beef sectors would co-evolve in the future. We examined a number of scenarios ranging from a rapid expansion of the dairy sector to the rapid fall of suckler farming, neither of which is the most likely scenario. We will probably see an expansion in dairy cow numbers of between 1% and 2% over the next couple of years, based on what we have seen with heifers on the ground, inseminations, calves born this year and so on.

We are in a slower expansion phase on the dairy side, with a rate of 4% to 5%. On the suckler cow side, the rate in the past three to four years has probably been 2% to 3% per year. Whether it picks up in terms of there being more conversions remains to be seen, but that is the trend. It is a question of whether the trends will remain at that modest level or accelerate in either direction. To me, it looks like we will see a more modest trend in the next couple of years.

Reference was made to the EBI, the visit to Moorepark and so on. I am not an expert on breeding. Perhaps Dr. Kelly might want to pick up on this issue.

On our breeding policy, let me refer to one of the most important herds we have at Moorepark. I was not there on the day members visited, but they probably saw the next generation herd. We are trying to look forward to determine what the average cow might look like in ten years' time. I am not referring to appearance but to how a cow performs. It is one of our flagship herds and a crossbred herd. It is a Holstein herd, but it is not all a Jersey herd by any manner or means. We do not see that the future involves crossbred animals for everybody. A relatively small proportion of the dairy herd is crossbred. The figure is approximately 5% or thereabouts. We circulated information to the effect that the only semen we used in our own cows this year was sexed Jersey semen, with a view to avoiding male Jersey calves or crossbred Jersey calves. We published our approach in the media. My understanding is quite a few farmers followed the practice in the spring.

On Jersey calves and live exports, Dr. Kelly might state whether there is an appetite for Jersey calves, or otherwise, among live exporters. My understanding is that, at this stage of the year, quite a few Jersey calves are being exported because there is a lot of demand for them. Dr. Kelly might know a little more about that matter. I will leave it to him.

I was asked about the BETTER farm beef programme, one of our knowledge transfer programmes, and also the data we published on the dairy calf to beef aspect. I was asked whether larger beef farmers, or others, were involved. To clarify, the data I showed for the better beef programme and the dairy calf to beef programme were for "selected farmers", for want of a better phrase. There were 25 or 30 farmers involved in the BETTER beef farm programme and ten in the green acres dairy calf to beef programme. There was a range of sizes, from medium to large, rather than small. On the wider question of whether our clients are large or small farmers, we have a mixture of clients. Dr. Kelly might refer to the numbers involved in discussion groups for the schemes.

Senator Paul Daly, rightly, pointed out that we were working on a very small part of the cake. Approximately 20% of the retail value is what ends up with the farmer. That is the part in respect of which we are trying to improve profitability. That is a fact, but a mantra from any businessperson is that one should control what one can control oneself and do it well. We work with farmers to help them to control what they can control as best they can. The wider picture and the share of the cake comprise a bigger issue that may be dealt with later.

On what we would like to see in the next CAP, we do not have a particular view on the matter. We provide information and advice for the Government on any scenario it wants us to model, but everyone believes the CAP will probably reflect important issues such as climate change and other environmental issues in its next iteration to a greater or lesser extent.

Senator Lombard referred to the trend away from suckler cows and highlighted the increase in contract calf rearing. I refer to dairy calves being contract reared on beef farms. It has developed as a successful enterprise on a significant number of farms and we see the trend continuing. I do not know what level it will reach, but there are probably 1,000 farms carrying out contract rearing. I do not know whether the number will double, but there is certainly a trend towards an increase. However, it is certainly not for everybody. Not every farmer will want to contract rear, but those who are doing it like the certainty attached to income. For dairy farmers, it is an important outlet or way to reduce the workload on some farms.

Senator Lombard asked whether there were issues that needed to be streamlined. I am not aware that there are particular barriers, legislative or regulatory issues holding things back. The Senator mentioned producer groups, an issue on which we have touched. He asked whether we were afraid that there would not be enough quality cattle around in ten years' time. I do not foresee us not having a significant suckler cow herd in ten years. We will see more dairy calf to beef production, to some extent, and it will be a challenge for the beef industry to ensure it can market all types of animal in the industry.

Senator Michelle Mulherin asked about the figure of €100 million and whether we had suggestions in targeting it. There are many people with many suggestions. There are many farmers who had a tough six or eight months because of beef prices. There will be many ways suggested as to how to cut the cake. I will leave it to the Minister and his officials, in their wisdom, to spend the money wisely and try to ensure the funding will go to those who suffered the biggest losses in the last period.

The Chairman asked about our work on climate change and what we were doing to inform and educate farmers in that regard. With every major event we experience, we highlight important issues to do with the environment. At our last open day in Grange there was a big element on the environment. In our programmes, including the BETTER farm beef programme, and so on we try to highlight environmental issues as much as we can. In agricultural colleges our students are well trained on the subject. Sometimes it can be hard to get farmers to engage on ot. They are much more interested in talking about breeding quality or grassland management, but, as the public debate increases, farmers are becoming increasingly informed and wish to know about the matter and circulate their side of the story. The farm organisations represent them quite well in that regard.