Paschal Donohoe (Dublin Central, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

The Deputy is correct. Table 13 refers to some of the figures he has touched on and shows that while our national debt will dip in 2020 to under €200 billion, it will then increase again. There are two reasons for that, however. The first is whether the Government of the day will make a decision to run larger surpluses than are currently set out in this document. I mentioned earlier that all the figures were set out on a "no policy change" basis. If the Government of the day were to decide to run larger surpluses, that figure would begin to come down. The second thing that would be open to us relates to one-off gains. I am of the strong view that if one-off gains become available to the State, we should use all or nearly all of the amounts to reduce that debt. I believe there will be one-off gains available to the State that could play a material role in reducing that figure. There will be a global shock at some point and we are part of a global economic cycle. When the economy moves into the next recession globally, the lower that debt figure is, the better will be our ability to withstand the challenges we may face. It should go without saying that the other variable in the context of which that figure must be considered is the ratio of debt to national income. The Deputy is asking me about a stock – the amount of debt we have – but we also expect the income we have to grow across the coming years. That will bring out debt down as a percentage of national income. I think about the stock a great deal, however.