Paschal Donohoe (Dublin Central, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

The first thing I want to do is to collect this surplus. My first objective is to make sure it is delivered. What I want to do with it is grow it into next year. We will deal with this in more detail in the summer economic statement but a fair chunk of the surplus of 0.2% is coming through what we think might happen with corporation tax during the year. Our economy should be in a position, if it continues to grow next year, to continue to have a budget surplus. In terms of Brexit, though, the position could change very rapidly. We believe the effect of a no-deal scenario on the general Government balance would be a move of 0.5%. The surplus would very quickly go and the economy would begin to run a significant deficit. Over a ten-year period, in the event of a disorderly Brexit, the deficit would amount to nearly 1%.

The answer to the Deputy's first question is that we will try to collect the surplus, preserve it, make sure we come in at that point and hopefully grow it in the future but a no-deal Brexit changes all of that completely. It would put us in a deficit position and more than likely, it will be a deficit position that will not be the result of temporary, one-off things. It will be a deficit position because our terms of trade with the United Kingdom will have completely shifted. This Government and future Governments will have to respond to that.