Dr. Liam Ryan:

I thank the committee for inviting us to today's meeting. I will discuss the key area of how we can better integrate increased levels of renewables into the electricity system. I thank Deputy Stanley and other committee members for focusing on this key area in the move towards decarbonisation. I am joined by my colleague, Mr. Arthur Moynihan, who leads our work on developing energy scenarios out to 2040. These scenarios include those that envisage a significant increase in microgeneration over the coming years. This will be along with existing conventional and onshore renewable generation as well as an expected significant growth in areas such as offshore generation in the coming decade.

As background for those who may be less familiar with our work, since 2006 EirGrid has operated and developed the national high-voltage electricity system in Ireland. We develop, manage and operate the electricity transmission grid through EirGrid in Ireland and SONI in Northern Ireland. Our transmission grid brings power from where it is generated to where it is needed throughout Ireland and Northern Ireland. We use this grid to supply power to industries and businesses that use large amounts of electricity. Here in the Republic, our grid also powers the ESB’s distribution system, which supplies the electricity people use every day in their homes, businesses, schools, hospitals and farms.

In more recent years, our grid has formed the pathway to harness the significant growth in renewable energy projects which are required to bring about the energy transition. These projects that connect into our transmission system usually generate approximately 40 MW or more.

A significant development over the past decade has been Ireland’s ability to deliver renewables onto our system. Today, we are capable of accommodating a record level of 65% variable renewables of electricity generated at any one time. This achievement was recognised in the recent report by the Oireachtas Joint Committee on Climate Action, and we thank that committee's members who are present for that recognition. We all know, however, that we need to do more and that additional renewables will need to be brought onto the system.

EirGrid, as the transmission grid operator, agrees that microgeneration can, and will, be a central component of the next phase of renewables. Moreover, we believe that the legislation being considered by the committee has significant merit in making microgeneration a reality in communities throughout rural and urban Ireland. As part of our role to identify those growing Irish energy trends, EirGrid has placed a strong emphasis on developing scenario planning to help us consider the range of ways that energy usage may change in the future. Speaking to a wide range of stakeholders and industry bodies, we gather and use this information to ensure we plan and develop the electricity transmission grid to meet the future needs of our society and economy.

We published the first edition of Tomorrow’s Energy Scenarios in 2017, which entailed developing a set of scenarios that outlined four possible futures for the supply and consumption of electricity until 2040. The EirGrid scenarios were each based on different storylines. Our scenarios assume different levels of microgeneration capacities, depending on the scenario and its associated storyline. An example is our consumer action scenario, which assumes the highest levels of microgeneration connected to the distribution grid. It is fair to say rooftop solar PV is assumed to be the primary microgeneration technology in the future, as a result of falling manufacturing and installation costs, financial incentives and ongoing changes to building regulations. The EirGrid consumer action scenario assumes that 30% of the overall solar generation fleet will be rooftop solar PV, which equates to 450 MW of rooftop solar PV and represents a significant and positive step change from where we are today. Taking into account the capacity factor and the stated requirement in the Bill for electricity suppliers to supply 5% of their electricity from microgeneration, this would translate into a need to install approximately 2 GW of solar PV at microgeneration level. If we consider this against a peak electricity demand of approximately 3.5 GW on a summer's day, it is clear that microgeneration will comprise a large proportion of the overall electricity generation on a sunny day.

If this ambition is realised, it will bring challenges in balancing electricity supply and demand on a minute-by-minute basis that we would need to find innovative solutions to address. We are, however, actively considering these challenges in the recognition that renewables levels will only increase, while recognising that, at a consumer level, we expect a considerable shift in consumer patterns in respect of demand response and an increase in the use of electric vehicles and heat pumps. Our scenarios also suggest that battery energy storage technologies will play a significant role in the future of microgeneration in Ireland, which was also reflected in the document recently published by the climate action committee. From our perspective, we have assumed that battery storage systems are likely to accompany rooftop solar PV to provide the capability to store electricity for times later in the day when it is needed in the home, or to supply it to the electricity grid when needed.

There is also a potential impact on aspects relating to the electricity market through the increased use of microgeneration. Our understanding is that the payment for the energy produced will be managed by the suppliers through the proposed minimum price tariff. This will require further discussion with other important organisations such as the ESB, Commission for Regulation of Utilities and Department of Communications, Climate Action and Environment.