Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 11 April 2019

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach

Matters Relating to the Banking Sector: Allied Irish Banks

Dr. Colin Hunt:

I will hand over to my colleague, Mr. Jim O'Keeffe, to deal with that matter. However, it is important to bear in mind the context in which we are undertaking these measures. We are 11 years post the peak of the financial crisis. We are under instruction from our regulator to continue to reduce our non-performing exposures down to European averages. Even leaving aside the instruction from the regulator, I am very conscious of the fact that this is an economic cycle that has had a very long run. The global economy has performed very well in recent years but I am equally conscious of the fact that we are beginning to see some straws in the wind regarding the economic outlook for the next number of years. The Deputy would have noted the International Monetary Fund, IMF, earlier this week reduced its growth forecast for Ireland. Last week, the World Trade Organization reduced its estimate for growth in trade globally last year from 4% to something of the order of 3%. We are dealing with major uncertainties with respect to potential trade wars and potential economic wars between America and China and that is not to take into account the stress Brexit is imposing on the economy. We have managed to escape having a hard Brexit tomorrow but the can has been just being kicked down the road for another six months and that impact is being felt particularly by our small and medium sized enterprises. In the opening quarter of last year we saw the deferral of many investment decisions taking place because many of the small and medium sized enterprises we service are very heavily dependent on the British economy. If there was no certainty about their ability to access that market, they were not willing to take the sort of investment decisions that would be conducted in the ordinary course of business. We are dealing with a very uncertain economic outlook. I have an obligation as the chief executive officer as have my colleagues, as members of my team, to ensure that when times are reasonably good we put the balance sheet of the bank into the strongest possible position now so that we can continue to support our customers regardless of what the economic cycle throws at us over the course of the next number of years. That is the context in which we are reducing our non-performing exposures. We have a very clear preference to engage with our customers to come to agreed solutions and to keep them as customers of AIB but no option can be ruled out because the overriding consideration must be to put the bank in the strongest possible position to deal with whatever may unfold in terms of an economic downturn ahead of us. I will pass over to my colleague, Mr. Jim O'Keeffe.

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