Dr. Adele Bergin:

A series of studies have looked at the impact of Brexit on Ireland. They are all consistent in that they all find a significant negative impact for Ireland. Taking the disorderly no-deal scenario, the level of output is estimated to be around 5% lower that what it otherwise would have been in the long run. A study from the OECD last year has estimated the long-run impact in a disorderly scenario at around 2.5%. The Central Bank has estimated that output will be 6% lower in the long run. There are other estimates out there. We are somewhere within the range of estimates. I do not have the details of what exactly the Central Bank did, but I imagine it estimated a slightly more negative trade shock, which led to its finding of minus 6% in the long run compared with our estimate of minus 5%.

In terms of differences in the short-term implications for Brexit, Dr. McQuinn heads our short-term forecasting team in the quarterly economic commentary. Its most recent projections for 2019 to 2020 are, if Brexit does not happen, for a growth rate of 3.8% and 3.2% growth, but that falls to 1.2% and 2.4% in the event of a disorderly Brexit. The Central Bank's estimate for the two years is probably closer to 1%. It is quite consistent. There is more uncertainty around the impact we will feel in the short term, and an element of judgment is built into the forecast. I cannot speak for the Central Bank, but I suspect that it has forecast additional disruption.