Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 10 April 2019

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

ESRI Report on Ireland and Brexit: Discussion

Photo of Lisa ChambersLisa Chambers (Mayo, Fianna Fail) | Oireachtas source

That was my point. I will run through my questions all together, that might be a bit easier. The Parliamentary Budget Office issued a report not so long ago highlighting the fact that the Government's budget planning was based on the central case, namely, that the UK would remain within the European Union, and it did not really account for the possibility of a no-deal, cliff-edge scenario. The question that we would have put to the Minister for Finance in this committee on several occasions was whether budget 2019 was sufficient to deal with a no-deal scenario, given that all the projections were based on there being a deal or an orderly exit. The response from the Minister has always been that the budget that was carried out for 2019 is fine, it is sufficient and there will be no need for a supplementary budget. Would the ESRI share the view of the Minister on that?

What impact will the Brexit process, whether it is a deal scenario or a no-deal scenario, have on budget 2020? That is the next budget and we will obviously be considering that post the summer recess.

On the three scenarios that the ESRI has looked at, did it analyse the impact of Brexit on the regions? My area is the north west, and my concern which is shared by many others in that region, is on the particular impact on tourism and agrifood, which are probably our two biggest economic drivers in that region.

In the ESRI's view, is the Government doing all that it can to prepare for Brexit? Is the ESRI satisfied that the financial planning being carried out by the Department is sufficient? Are we prepared as best we can be?

Dr. Bergin touched slightly on the one little positive from Brexit, namely, the potential increase in foreign direct investment, FDI. What are the ESRI's short-term projections for an increase in FDI? In the medium to long term, we might be looking at an increase when the UK has fully exited but in the short term, does the ESRI see that as being part of the buffer that might protect the country and offset some of the damage across other sectors?

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