Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 26 March 2019

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach

Central Bank of Ireland: Discussion

Photo of Pearse DohertyPearse Doherty (Donegal, Sinn Fein) | Oireachtas source

With respect to Brexit, Deputy McGrath referenced the ESRI report earlier indicating that with a disorderly Brexit, over a period of nearly a decade there would be a nearly 5% reduction in output. That is shocking everybody because it is making more real the possibility of that outcome. The Central Bank of Ireland's assessment is much more stark. It is that it would not take ten years to reach that type of level but that in year one we would have a 4% reduction in output. Given the ESRI's report, is the bank still satisfied the assessment of the impact of a no-deal Brexit hard crash-out would be that severe?

Has the Central Bank been able to extrapolate that reduction in output in terms of its impact on the wider economy expressed in billions of euro and on the number of jobs expressed in tens of thousands?

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