Dr. Mark Cassidy:

Our estimates point to very significant adverse effects, particularly in the first two years after a no-deal Brexit. They point to growth being around 4% lower in the first year than in our main forecast and a further 2% lower in the second year. We expect this would still leave positive growth over those periods, probably of between 1% and 1.5% in each year compared with 4.5% and 3%, respectively. Our scenario in the event of a no-deal Brexit is for materially weaker growth but avoiding recession and for output and employment growth both remaining positive. I emphasise the inherent uncertainty regarding these estimates. We do not have prior experience of the type of shock and disruption in which a no-deal Brexit would result, so either better or worse outcomes than those cannot be ruled out.