Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 27 February 2019

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Macroeconomic Analysis and Fiscal Risks: Central Bank of Ireland

Dr. Mark Cassidy:

I can say more about the Central Bank's preparations than about the Government's. We have had close interaction with the Department of Finance over recent years and a lot of work is being done but I am less close to the preparations that are being done outside the financial sector. Are we prepared as an economy for the end of March? I would say we are as well prepared as any other economy but not fully prepared. I do not believe any country in Europe, including the UK, is fully prepared for a no-deal Brexit. If firms and the Government had known a year ago what the outcome was going to be they could have prepared but there has been such uncertainty and so many different scenarios that the degree of preparedness for the most adverse scenario was never going to be 100%.

Our remit on the macroeconomic side is to provide advice, economic analysis and commentary but I believe the Deputy's question to have been about the financial system, the stability of the system and supervisory issues.

The bank has been working on these since well before the referendum. I remember having our first meetings about preparations for the potential of Brexit around the summer or autumn of 2015 and we have worked intensively on potential Brexit risks in the three and a half year period since. With respect to the type of work we have done, we have engaged closely with the banks to ensure they have sufficient capital and have undertaken stress tests in order to be able to withstand all Brexit scenarios. From the outset, we have emphasised in all our communications that while a no-deal Brexit was not the most likely outcome, it was always a possible outcome.

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