Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 27 February 2019

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Macroeconomic Analysis and Fiscal Risks: Central Bank of Ireland

Photo of Jonathan O'BrienJonathan O'Brien (Cork North Central, Sinn Fein) | Oireachtas source

Many questions have been asked so I will be brief. Brexit is the big challenge at the moment but, as the witnesses have been quick to point out, it is not the only one. I want to touch on employment, housing and non-commercial properties and the factors at play in those issues. From reading the report, we are reaching full employment and there is now a transition of employment across sectors that is leading to wage increases. That is my reading of it, in summary. How much will that play into a possible risk of overheating the economy?

Another area touched on in the report is housing. We have almost reached capacity in construction due to skill shortages and because we are reaching full employment. I do not understand the references in the report to non-commercial properties maintaining a very moderate level of growth. Reports produced by the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council, IFAC, and the Department suggest that the greater risks of overheating in the economy are coming from the commercial sector rather than the non-commercial sector. Will the witnesses briefly discuss that and how we could address it? We only have so many workers in the construction sector and are reaching full employment, so how do we overcome that?

The report states that more properties are becoming available for rent in the Dublin area. There has been an increase of approximately 7.1% in the number of properties available for rent in Dublin and, as a result, we are seeing a slight decrease in rental prices there. That is not being replicated outside Dublin and fewer properties are becoming available for rent elsewhere. The figure in the Central Bank's quarterly bulletin is a 4.5% decrease in the number of properties for rent outside Dublin and rental prices are going up. The report indicates that there is a significant issue with supply and demand outside Dublin.

I was taken by surprise at the figures for the Dublin region because Dublin always seems to be an area where there is little supply of housing, yet the report states there has been an increase in the number of properties available to rent in the capital. I am not questioning the figures but that is not the information we hear in constituency offices or debates in the Oireachtas. We hear that Dublin is at saturation point and there is no place to rent in Dublin. However, that is not borne out by the analysis in the report. I ask the witnesses to address that issue.

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