Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 27 February 2019

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Macroeconomic Analysis and Fiscal Risks: Central Bank of Ireland

Photo of Tommy BroughanTommy Broughan (Dublin Bay North, Independent) | Oireachtas source

I welcome the delegation.

What really is the difference between a scenario analysis and a forecast? Is it a case of hedging one’s bets either for a cliff-edge Brexit or various types of softer Brexits which will impact hard on us after 2020? The European Commissioner, Günther Oettinger, stated a no-deal Brexit will probably lead to a general recession. I assume that will mean quarter after quarter of declining output. Is it the case that the cliff-edge Brexit is an existential threat to our economy? We have seen the anxiety - to put it mildly - in the farming sector. It is a significant bedrock in our intrinsic domestic economy. Is the Central Bank being too sanguine about its scenarios or actual forecasts?

On budget 2019, we have been asking about the Revised Estimates and the possibility of another budget. Has the Government taken on board sufficiently the profound risks of Brexit, an event which we are days away from?

The great Fintan O’Toole said geography is destiny. Napoleon once said, when he would not send us troops to help us to get rid of the English yoke 200 years ago, that “L'Irlande est une Ìle derriere une Ìle.” Is it the case that Brexit will have a profound impact on us? We are located in the North Atlantic Ocean with this large economy between us and our European partners. There are all kinds of logistical issues which we are going to have to unravel, whether it is Irish Ferries going out of Dublin Port or Rosslare. The Governor of the Central Bank, Professor Lane, stated at the European Financial Forum that the financial sector has become strong enough to withstand profound shocks.

The Dáil is debating Second Stage of the Brexit omnibus legislation and we all have this sense of unreality discussing changes to significant areas of tax law and whether they will be implemented. The Central Bank has a core role in the Stock Exchange and the insurance industry. How does it view its viability going forward?

What are the estimates for the levels of household debt going into the early 2020s?


No comments

Log in or join to post a public comment.