Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 27 February 2019

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Macroeconomic Analysis and Fiscal Risks: Central Bank of Ireland

Photo of John LahartJohn Lahart (Dublin South West, Fianna Fail) | Oireachtas source

I thank the Central Bank officials for their public service and for all the work they have done on this. I have a number of brief questions. They are the kinds of questions we have put to the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council, IFAC, the Governor, the Minister and so on over time. Are our guests of the view that there is an over-reliance on corporation tax receipts? They might have a comment to make on that, which we could add to previous comments.

It seems we may be in territory whereby the idea of a no-deal, fall-off-the-cliff-edge Brexit, may not, dare I say it, be as strong a possibility as previously feared. I certainly hope this proves to be the case. Could Dr. Cassidy expand a little on what he had to say about the other two scenarios to which he referred, including that relating to the UK trading under WTO rules?

Last week, the Chairman and I were present at EU parliamentary week. One of the events was addressed by the vice president of the European Investment Bank. I wish to raise two questions in this regard. First, public expenditure on capital programmes has shrunk by 20% across the EU. Regarding investments in public infrastructure and our climate change obligations and challenges we face, the vice president stated that the private sector must be incentivised to lead in many of these big capital projects. Our guests might comment on that matter.

The employment figures are really good news, but we heard last week that youth unemployment in some of the modern economies in Europe is at about 30% to 40%. Where are we in the youth unemployment figures? What is the trend and trajectory in this regard? Clearly, our rate is nowhere near as high as 30% to 40%, but what do our guests think accounts for the high rates in some European countries? Are youth unemployment rates higher than overall unemployment rates? I would like to hear any comments our guests might have on that.

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