Simon Coveney (Cork South Central, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

What will happen on 29 March? We will have done everything we can by then and enacted legislation in time in order that, at 11 p.m. on 29 March, currently the time and date at and on which the United Kingdom will formally leave the European Union, this law will take effect. Students will be able to continue as previously. It may mean that cars travelling back and forth across the Border will need a green card on the windscreen, but, by and large, the common travel area will continue as it does today. That will not solve the problem for many in Ireland who do not have an Irish or a British passport. In the Irish economy there are 200 different nationalities and, while they will continue to be able to move between Britain and Ireland because there will be no barriers because of the common travel area, they may not be able to work the way they do now and they will not have the benefits of this legislation which applies to Irish nationals. It changes the relationship and causes issues.

The real impact will be felt in sectors such as agriculture. We sell approximately €2 billion worth of beef into the United Kingdom each year. I do not believe the United Kingdom will leave without a deal, but, if that was to happen and it decided to implement full the WTO trading arrangements, something for which some are openly advocating in the British Parliament, it would mean tariffs of up to 65% on beef and approximately 43% on dairy products. The commerce and trading environment for important sectors in Ireland would be changed dramatically. That is also true in the United Kingdom. We buy approximately €3.5 billion worth of food and drink from there each year. All of the complexities of the relationships, north and south on the island, and figuring out solutions in a short period of time would exert pressure. It would be difficult, from which there is no getting away.

We are preparing as best we can. The European Union is putting practical contingency plans in place, but it will put Ireland under a lot of strain. In my view, it will also put the United Kingdom under enormous strain. It will cost jobs and damage the economy. We have many contingency plans in place to reduce the damage, but it will be difficult.

In response to Deputy Durkan, we have very strong EU unity. That will continue. The EU wants a deal; it wants to manage Brexit. It is watching in astonishment how the debates are progressing in Westminster but it is what it is but we have to accept that and we have to be respectful of that, even though it is frustrating. I do not believe the EU is in any mood to sacrifice Irish interests to get a deal. We are a member state that is staying and that is committed to the EU. I have never experienced anything like the solidarity with Ireland on this issue in my political life. I have been in the European Parliament and I have been in multiple different Ministries and in different positions in respect of the EU. The solidarity we have got from countries a long way from us geographically is extraordinary and I think it will hold.

We cannot extend the latitude of the common travel area to include trade because trade is an EU competence, we are part of an EU Single Market and customs union and the Border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland is an EU border as well as a border between the UK and Ireland. We need solutions that involve the British Government and the EU. We will have an All-Island Civic Dialogue on Brexit again tomorrow in Dublin Castle, which will bring everyone together. Everyone is invited. Some people will not be there but that is their choice. I am a regular visitor to Northern Ireland. I will travel to Belfast tomorrow following the civic dialogue.

In response to Deputy Haughey's questions, the insurance sector has been proactive on the green card issue in letting its clients and customers know but we may well have to shift gear on communication if it looks like this will happen. I also suspect, however, there will be some recognition that it will take a few weeks to adapt to the new realities and so on but I take the point on communication.

On the commencement orders for this legislation, they will be introduced section by section. I am sure Ms Ní Choigligh will correct me if I am wrong but if there is a deal and there is no need to enact most of this legislation, and if we move into a formal transition period consistent with the withdrawal agreement, only section 13 will be enacted because that effectively redefines in law the term "member state" to apply to the UK outside of the EU but in a transition period with us. The status quowill be maintained through transition in all the different areas where EU law applies. The rest of it would not be necessary.

I am told there will not be a supplementary budget. I have spoken to the Minister for Finance and the Taoiseach about this. If the UK were to crash out without a deal at the end of March, in April and May there would be implementation of contingency measures supporting vulnerable sectors and so on and then we are quickly into the summer and there will be another budget in October. There is not any likelihood that there will be a supplementary budget before the summer. We are fortunate. Ireland is back into surplus. It means that we will have to borrow more money and that the outlook for economic growth will change and, therefore, the budget arithmetic will change but we will not need to introduce an emergency budget or anything like that.

Earlier this week I spoke to the horseracing industry, which is one of several sectors that is vulnerable. Even with the all-island approach to horse racing, 7,000 thoroughbreds cross the Border each year for breeding purposes to places such as Down Royal for race meetings. It is an industry worth €1.85 billion to the economy each year. Every county in the country has an interest in it and it relies on a seamless relationship between the UK and Ireland. Brexit will interrupt that, particularly east-west in terms of veterinary certificates and management of disease. We have seen an example of that even in the past week with equine flu in the UK, which has been managed well there and here to keep it out of Ireland. There is uncertainty for the horseracing industry, as there is for other sectors. The industry does not face the same tariffs that the beef and dairy sectors could have to face. The tariff is approximately 11% on the sale of a horse, which is still significant, but nothing like the dramatic tariff impact on dairy or beef.