Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees
Tuesday, 5 February 2019
Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach
Yes, that is based on the information currently available to me. As we move forward, I will use further information and models that emerge from the UK to update the forecasts again when I provide the stability programme update in April. To make a final point, if the Deputy is asking me to forecast the effect of a recession in the UK on the Irish economy, we have ample experience of those kinds of economic events in economic history and forecasting.
The event whose effects I am being asked to predict is something that has not happened before. To see an economy of the scale and interconnectivity of the UK leave something like the EU is unique. As such, at each point, I have acknowledged the caveats we have built into our forecast. If they evolve, the first point at which they will evolve will be in April. Of course, I will update the Oireachtas in the stability programme update.