Paschal Donohoe (Dublin Central, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

Our most recent modelling exercise was done a few months ago in the context of preparing the Budget 2019 - Economic and Budgetary Outlook. In that analysis, we highlighted our best estimate of what a no-deal scenario would be. It showed that the level of output in our economy would be approximately 3.25% lower after five years than would be the case in a no-Brexit scenario. The analysis contains figures in terms of employment, outcomes and output. The next point at which we would normally look at reviewing our forecast in the context of various risks would be in the stability programme update due in April. However, since the Government and I published this work, a number of reviews were carried out in the United Kingdom in December. These outline the UK authorities' most recent estimates of what would be the effect of the British economy if a no-deal scenario developed. I have asked my officials to review those figures in order to see if we would be in a position to provide an update on the effect of a no-deal scenario beyond that which we have already outlined. We have shared information and we issued a forecast. That forecast was part of the budgetary process. I will review matters in order to see if there is a need to update that further, particularly in light of the scale of the vote that happened last night.