Michael Harty (Clare, Independent) | Oireachtas source

Can I come back to the pure Estimates again? The overrun in the various regions ranges from €86 million to €118 million. The Minister of State has spoken about the causes of these overruns. It is a demand-led service and there is an unpredictability about various flu epidemics, storms and snowstorms etc. I put it to the Minister of State that there is a predictability to health. For instance, 3,500 people will fall and break a hip every year. It might be 3,400 one year and 3,600 the following year, but there is a predictability about it. There is a predictability about how patients suffering from many chronic illnesses will present to hospital. There is also a predictability about the aging process. We know that 20,000 people per year go over the age of 65. The aging population is increasing. The population over 85 will double in the next number of years. These are all predictable, actuarial events.