Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 5 December 2018

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Fiscal Assessment Report November 2018: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council

2:00 pm

Mr. Seamus Coffey:

We assessed capital spending previously and do see Ireland moving from a relatively low level to a relatively high level. The concern we would have raised, however, is that we cannot do everything and that if we choose to devote significant resources to capital spending, we will spend less in other areas or require additional tax increases. One point that was made about the budget is that for 2018, 2019 and 2020 current spending is growing at 4.5%, which seems to be in line with the fiscal council's view that it is fine to have increases of 4.5% for current spending, but capital spending this year is increasing by 27% and will increase next year by 13%. The overall increase in spending, current and capital, is therefore much above the level we would consider sustainable. The increase in capital spending is not a temporary spike; it is due to rise to a much higher level. It is a structural increase from low levels which is being maintained at high levels. This growth will not then be cancelled by a subsequent fall, so the overall package of spending is quite large. We assessed the increase in capital spending to be, as my colleague said, necessary to develop the capital stock in the country. It was not possible, however, to do everything. In this budget we see current spending rise to the limit of what we consider sustainable. If the capital spending is then put on top of that, one exceeds that level.

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