Mr. Seamus Coffey:

What we will be looking for is an assurance that this is not the start of a pattern that continues over a number of years. The public finances have recovered substantially in recent years and are in a reasonable position but there are still significant risks. If we are not leaving sufficient leeway to allow for those risks, both within the public finances themselves and the economy at large, that leaves us unnecessarily vulnerable. The report this year was slightly different to previous reports because what happened this year was different. In 2017, for example, the Government set out a plan and by and large, it stuck to it. There were within-year spending increases last year but there were savings elsewhere to offset them. The Government kept the amount of spending increases for 2018 at the time of last year's budget within the range that we assessed to be prudent. We did not use that strong language last year because the things we would look for were actually in the budget. This year, those things that we would look for were not there. The Government did not stick to the plan. The budget day package was larger than previously signalled. We had significantly greater within-year spending increases for 2018 with little or no savings elsewhere to offset them. When those spending increases are put into the base for 2019, we get a very large increase in spending for next year relative to what was originally planned for 2018.

In terms of what we would like to see happening, we would like to see the budget becoming credible, that budget 2019 as set out is delivered on and that we do not get more increases. The Government has already admitted that we are going to get €250 million of additional gross spending through the Christmas bonus next year and other overruns in health cannot be ruled out. When it comes to the summer economic statement of 2019, we would like to see the Government setting out a plan that is within the range that is considered prudent and then delivering on that. If we get that, the language of our report will be different next year. It is a cumulative thing in terms of the budget recently passed. There were things that we looked for and saw last year that we did not see this year.