Dr. Martina Lawless:

It would be reasonable to think that it would double the size of the effect. Much of the impact that it was taking into consideration in terms of why it would increase the impact so much was the length of time that it would take firms to adjust to delays on the Border in terms of checks and customs. Given the amount of Irish trade that transits the UK, any delays in UK port processing times would potentially have a knock-on effect on Irish trade routes as well. Our report highlights that as a risk and that there is a central scenario, which seems reasonable based on the odds of a deal and a transition period being put in place, but that the current estimates of how large the impact would be on the economy in the long term could be understated if this deal does not come into play and there is a cliff edge Brexit next March.