Dr. Martina Lawless:

I can take the Brexit question. It is true that all the forecasts by the Department of Finance, and endorsed by the fiscal council, were based on what seemed like a very reasonable central scenario of a transition agreement and extension until 2021, and then some sort of deal. Obviously, given that it is a very fast-moving environment, it is difficult to update the what-if scenarios but we will know more after the parliamentary vote next Tuesday.

It is difficult to update those types of "what if?" scenarios but we will know more with the parliamentary vote next Tuesday.

On the effects it could have on the Irish economy and it throwing the budget out of date, the work done by the Department of Finance and the ESRI on the overall effect of Brexit on the Irish economy showed long-term reductions in GDP in the order of 4%. Those were all based on a stable transition period and a long-term effect. If we look at analysis in the UK which was released last week by the Bank of England, it took what had been a similar analysis of a transition period and a smooth Brexit and looked at what the additional effects of a cliff edge, disorderly Brexit next March would be and it effectively doubled the size of its negative impact on the UK economy. Given the level of integration between the Irish and the UK economies, it is not unreasonable to assume that something similar in terms of the Irish forecasts if they were updated to include a disorderly Brexit. A lot of the-----