Mr. Paul Kelly:

To touch on one or two of Deputy Pringle's points, there are, in essence, two broad scenarios, namely "no deal" or, alternatively, a deal and a movement to a transition and discussions around the future trading relationship. From our perspective, we need to address both. I take the point that there is a huge level of uncertainty and that things are changing on a daily basis, in particular in Westminster. What was agreed in Brussels recently was twofold. There was a withdrawal deal and a political declaration on the future trading relationship. They are going to get to that and it will hopefully be relatively soon but it is only a political declaration at this stage. It will become a free-trade agreement of some kind between the EU 27 and the UK. That is why, when we look at the medium to long-term aspects of this, we consider it to be hugely important to think about, talk about and be focused on these issues. Over the longer term, the outcome of that process will lock in our trading relationship with what will most likely remain our most important agrifood trading partner. If we do not get things right around customs and the regulatory relationship, costs will be embedded into our business model in the long term. As such, it is hugely important to look at those. There is a degree of certainty in the sense that it is going to happen at some stage or other. As such, it is important for us to focus on that.

From the immediate perspective, there is a great deal of uncertainty and it is very difficult from an investment perspective. From a business perspective and contingency planning, which is also a matter for the State agencies, there is a certain amount that can be done regarding a "no deal" Brexit. In some respects, companies have gone past the point of no return and one can probably say the same about State agencies given the additional veterinary and customs inspectors that are needed. One cannot simply recruit someone and put him or her in situ. Training is required and physical infrastructure has to be put in place. It is clear that the agencies are working towards December 2020 as the time by which they must be fully up to speed on that but I imagine emergency measures will be needed in the event that there is no deal on 29 March.

As Ms Callan said, companies have outlined the various scenarios and done all the plans. The major issue for most companies is that the level of uncertainty means the sort of investment required to ensure one is done and dusted by 29 March does not make business sense. They will do what they can where there is little or no cost. However, if substantial investment is required, most companies are not in a position to make it, in particular in low-margin businesses like food and drink.