Mr. Paul Hogan:

The projections in the national planning framework, NPF, are not that different from the national spatial strategy, NSS, in the sense in that the NSS refers to 1.2 million people over 20 years and we are talking about 1 million people over 20 years. One of the problems with the NSS is that following the 2006 census, in the absence of strong regional plans, local authorities examined the short-term trend from 2002 to 2006 and took a view that the significant growth experienced between 2002 and 2006 would continue. That then gave rise to ambitious plans in the later part of the noughties which meant that by 2010 most of the plans that were extant bore no reflection to the prevailing circumstances post-2008. That caused a mismatch that has existed up to this day regarding what local authority plans have anticipated and projected with respect to what they have based those on. They departed, to some extent, from the NSS, which was the problem. That departure was not corrected until we put the NPF in place. The NPF's perspective has sought to be longer term.

The Deputy has correctly identified there will be a formal review every six years. Given there is so much uncertainty and commentary and also, even compared to years ago, so much information, papers and reports with the latest information, we realise that we need to keep those projections under constant review. We have talked to the ESRI about putting in place an ongoing level of analysis that would cause us to have a short-term variation and then take a view as to whether it is impacting on the long term. Until strong evidence suggests otherwise, the long term will remain fixed but we will be mindful of it in the short term because we know there is the capacity for local authorities, in particular, to feel strongly about it.

On the impact of Brexit on migration, much commentary and evidence suggests that Dublin, in particular, will remain attractive for people coming to Ireland. The reality is that cities are attractive to migrants. Our strategy regarding this is twofold. We are strong in trying to support our regional cities and towns. The NPF strategy backs the other cities in addition to Dublin. It is a very fine balance. We must be careful about the fact that Dublin is globally important to Ireland but we also want to grow and expand the role of the other cities and towns. In these current weeks, we are finalising the urban regeneration fund, which will be targeted at larger towns and cities, to encourage investment to make them more competitive and more resilient to the effects of a Brexit-induced recession or a downturn. The bottom line is that there may be a more regional variation in population projections or growth. We have to target measures to address that.

We calibrate anything we do with the ESRI, or whomever, against the CSO information. We participate in an CSO expert group, which previously met regarding long-term population labour force projections and is due to meet again regarding the starting of a cycle, starting this Friday, on regional population projections. We have monitored closely and influenced the discussion on regional variation that might be impacted by Brexit because we are concerned about the risk with respect in particular to the Border and north midland counties as opposed to the cities which have proven more resilient.