Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 13 November 2018

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Agriculture, Food and the Marine

Implications of Brexit for Agriculture Sector: Discussion

3:30 pm

Mr. Simon McKeever:

If one looks at sterling now, since the announcement it has come down 70p against the euro. When one looks at the competitive advantage trading one way or the other between the two countries, a weak pound has the ability to off-set any of the customs and tariffs that might be due. The pound has moved 24% since 19 November, before the vote, but if one looks at where the euro and sterling were historically over the past ten years, the average is approximately 82p to 85p, so we are close to the average rate. In the past 20 years, it has been at historically high levels. If one removes Brexit from consideration in the context of the euro-sterling rate, one would say that it is probably at a peak and it will start to come off. Brexit and the political risk are, therefore, keeping it quite high. As to whether it will come into play in April, if a deal is done my sense is that the pound will strengthen and we will see euro-sterling coming off.

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