Mick Barry (Cork North Central, Solidarity) | Oireachtas source

Recently, Fr. Peter McVerry stated that he estimates that there are now 500,000 persons living in the State who experience distress on a daily basis on foot of their housing situations. We are in the middle of the greatest housing crisis this State has known. Whenever Brexit is discussed we hear much about its impact on jobs, wages and economic growth. It is not a criticism of the institutes but a criticism of the State that four and a half months from the deadline for Brexit we are still in the dark in terms of the impact it will have on the housing crisis and the people affected by it. It is not entirely an unknown unknown. I note with interest that the Economic and Social Research Institute, ESRI, and the Nevin Economic Research Institute, NERI, have laid emphasis on the fact that an important preparatory measure would be a significant ramping up of the State's investment in social and affordable housing. This is an important conclusion emanating from the presentations today.

I have two questions for the delegates, the first of which relates to measuring the effect. It is sometimes possible to measure precisely but at other times it is only possible to measure within a particular range. In previous discussions on Brexit impacts we have heard it could result in the loss of 20,000 jobs and that in particular sectors it could result in wage cuts of between 5% and 10%. One report states that it could have a depressing effect on growth of, perhaps, 2%. Are we in a position to make assessments in terms of key housing indicators?

For example, one of the key impacts pointed to today is an upward pressure on rents, but I am not 100% sure as to the basis for it. I understand financial industry is relocating here from the UK and that this has a depressing effect on the housing market in terms of more people seeking rental accommodation in that circumstance. I also have an idea of the reason for an upward pressure on rents but I would like to know if we are in a position to measure it. Yesterday, Daft.iereleased data which points to an 11% year-on-year increase in rents nationally. Are we in a position to state that in a particular Brexit scenario the upward pressure effect on rent is likely to be in the range of 1% to 3%, 3% to 5% or 5% to 10%? What is the best scenario and what might be the worst? I accept there is an element of speculation in this regard and that the witnesses might not be prepared to speculate but, perhaps, they would comment on the issue.

My second question relates to the issue of regional variations, which I think both witnesses pointed to as well.

Greater Dublin has been highlighted as an area in which, for obvious reasons, increased upward pressure on rent might be the greatest. Would our guests be prepared to comment on the effects of Brexit on the housing situation in other areas? There will be a big difference between the midlands and west of Ireland as opposed to some of the larger cities outside Dublin. I refer to Galway in the west, Limerick in the mid-west and Cork in the south-west. Would our guests be prepared to comment on the likely effects on those cities?