Ms Kerry Curran:

On the overarching messages emerging from this research, we are seeing a majority of businesses in vulnerable and at-risk groups having regard to the shock costs associated with Brexit. In both the import and export sectors, it is in the region of three quarters of all businesses in Northern Ireland. It is very significant for Northern Ireland firms. Ms Gildernew mentioned vulnerability to time delays. While we have not calculated the figures or specific issues around vulnerability and time, we calculated in our first research project, which was looking at the impact of tariff and non-tariff barriers, that non-tariff barriers alone would account for a 9% reduction of cross-Border trade in a hard Brexit scenario. That includes assumptions around the additional cost of time. Anecdotally, we have spoken to a range of businesses which have mentioned concerns around the potential for time delays if there were customs at the Border or indeed any delays in their journeys. A number of firms in Northern Ireland provide just-in-time services to firms in the South. For example, the delivery of medical supplies or surgical goods is done on a just-in-time basis as surgeries are scheduled. Any delays in that process would require those businesses to reroute their supply chains to meet customer demand. There will be far-reaching implications if there are delays in delivering goods across the Border.