Professor Philip Lane:

Our next quarterly bulletin which is being finalised will include material on that issue. Many people are running the models for it. When I was responding a while ago to Deputy Pearse Doherty on it, I said it delivered an answer; it was negative. Ireland will be affected, not only if the United Kingdom goes into recession but if any of these severe scenarios leads to significant depreciation in sterling which will hit Irish exporters. I am emphasising the fact that the models will typically understate because on top of them there will be the turmoil. The financial markets will be rocky; there will possibly be movements in stock markets, exchange rates and so on. I would not take excessive comfort from quantitative numbers we may put out in the next couple of weeks because on top of them there could be turmoil in the financial sector which could have its own dynamics. No matter how hard Brexit is, it remains the case that rich countries have different trading arrangements. It is negative and will lead to lower living standards here and in the United Kingdom, but it is not the case that the United Kingdom will suddenly fall off the map or become a zero trading partner. It is regrettable and negative, but we should be contained in the amount-----