Paschal Donohoe (Dublin Central, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

I think it is likely that our economy would still grow but it would be at a significantly lower rate. In terms of what we said and the medium-term impact of a shock like that occurring, it could be worth three to three and a half growth points over the years afterwards. If that was to occur, it would be a significant shock for our economy.

To answer the Deputy's question regarding what we can do to mitigate against and deal with that, we would need to focus immediately focus on three areas. The first would be the budgetary impact, about which I have given an answer with all the caveats and conditions I can, because it would be an event that would have many consequences. The second would be how we would respond to and deal with the exceptional swings that would be likely to occur in terms of the value of sterling were something like that to happen. This would have many difficult consequences for our trading economy. The third risk we are working on would be the impact on our financial sector because, as the Deputy is aware, not only do we have banks that are active in the UK, we have flows of money, insurance contracts and exchanges between Ireland and the EU, of which the UK is a member. This why following the informal summit that took place in Bulgaria earlier in the year, a working group is now in place between the Bank of England and the ECB to consider issues such as this.

To answer the Deputy's final question regarding where we are with regard to recruitment, I understand that we are in the early phases of that process but I will see if I can furnish more information about that matter to him. This recruitment will be funded by me in the budget and I will outline to the House on budget day how we will pay for it.

I have one concluding point to make to the Deputy. In any scenario along the Brexit spectrum, the UK will still become a third country. I reiterate what I said at an IBEC event a number of days ago: we are working hard to secure an outcome but the trading relationship between the UK and the EU will change. This will mean that there will be many new obligations on Irish, European and British companies so the customs officials we are hiring and what we are doing on the agricultural front such as the additional staff who are being hired there will be needed.