Dr. Simeon Djankov:

We use the latest data in our report to document which are the types of sectors most amenable to automation, in other words, the way that robots are most likely to replace workers. As I mentioned, this applies not only to menial jobs, which was the case in the past with previous industrial revolutions, such as the development of the steam engine, electricity or even the computer, when one started at the bottom. We now have some very sophisticated jobs. The Senator mentioned accounting and there are legal services and surgical jobs where machines are too expensive to develop and use, but already we have a number of businesses or countries where robots work better than people and are cheaper. It is a matter of time as to when this change will take place.

Coincidentally, there are two types of work, according to our analytical work where it was found to be nearly 100% the case that robots cannot yet replace people. One is the job of politicians and that is because the logic of politics is often such that it is not routine, therefore, robots very often cannot figure out politics. The other job is that of journalists, where one needs to operate with facts but also to put matters together. At least according to our data, we are safe for now.

What can one do to prepare not only the next generation, which is what we have discussed so far, but the generation that is already out of school, out of university and at work where sectors are being automated? This is a much more difficult task. While we have many positive things to say about the early years of learning, and the Work Bank has vast experience of this from its operations around the world, the returns from adult retraining are basically negative around the world. There are a few successful programmes on which we comment but if we take the totality of both advanced economies and emerging markets and do a standard returns-to-investment analysis, it will show that for every dollar spent on adult retraining, we get less than a dollar back. That may sound striking but it does not mean-----