Mr. Seamus Coffey:

The council has spent a lot of time discussing those two points. On the health budget, we are no more informed than the Deputy and are depending on Departments and Ministers to provide us with that information. We are told that not all of the overrun will be built into budget 2019, and it is not expected that all of the overrun will be recurring. However, we are not told the breakdown. The indication that a certain amount of the overrun was caused by recruitment suggests that it should have been predictable. Not only is it going to be a recurring item of expenditure - it will still be in place next year - but it should also be predictable. One of the issues with the constant overruns in the health budget is that they undermine our ability to assess budgetary policy. The Government has set out a plan for 2019, which we have assessed and which we believe to be in line with prudent economic and budgetary management. We also assessed the plan that was set out last year and thought the same. As we progress through 2018, however, those plans are not being adhered to. For example, the health budget overrun looks set to amount to hundreds of millions; we do not have the precise figure. It appears that much of the overrun will be recurring expenditure and will be built into the base figure for 2019.

From our perspective, one impact of this is that the underlying budgetary position is deteriorating. While it might appear in headline or nominal terms that we can absorb these increases because of corporation tax and lower interest, if we consider that some of those factors are transitory and look at what is happening on a sustainable basis, it is clear that our underlying position is deteriorating. We have no additional insight into the health budget beyond what the Department and the Minister are willing to offer. We agree there should be greater monitoring of the health budget and a greater ability to predict what is required. If resources are required, they should be made available at the start of the year. A Minister should not come before a committee in July and say that there should be a supplementary budget. It is now the middle of September and we do not know what the Supplementary Estimate will be or when it will be passed. In recent years, Estimates have been passed towards the middle of December, the end of the year, when most of the money has been spent. The White Paper published on the Friday night before the budget might provide an indication, but we are still left to pick between numbers and assess what is happening. Such information should be provided. We share the concerns of the Deputy, but unfortunately we - and others - do not yet have the answer.