Professor Alan Barrett:

I will try to address the first question and then ask my colleagues, who are far more knowledgeable than me, for their input. In the context of the link between economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions, the ESRI works with agencies such as the SEAI and the Environmental Protection Agency, EPA, in producing the projections of greenhouse gas emissions. In regard to official projections regarding the likelihood that we will miss targets, the ESRI contributes to that work at the mechanical level of using our economic models to project what economic growth is likely to be in the medium term and then linking to emissions. Our work indicates that, risks excepted, there will be quite good rates of economic growth for the next number of years. We do not see any evidence that any significant decoupling between economic activity and the energy intensity will break down. The extent to which we have seen the economic cycle move in a particular direction and greenhouse gas emissions move in exactly the same way is quite remarkable. There does not seem to be any immediate sense that decoupling will happen. Obviously, there are proposals in documents such as the national development plan which may have an effect on this area but it is still an open question as to how strong such effect would be.

Dr. Curtis or Dr. de Bruin may be better placed to respond to the Chairman's question on countries which have had success in that area.