Professor Philip Lane:

Again, let me emphasise that in all of our reports, we always outline what we believe will happen to the economy. We then go through different downside scenarios. Therefore, the reversal in house prices is in the category of a downside scenario. What we publish in our forecasts is macroeconomics, including what will happen to GDP and consumption. We do not forecast house prices. What we do is try to understand the beliefs of those involved in the market. Fairly consistently, based on a three-year horizon, the figure is around 15%. This is based on adding up the figures over three years.