Professor Philip Lane:

I will just come back to the first point we made here. What I am saying is absolutely not rocket science. It is fairly obvious. We have fairly obvious risk factors now. It is hard to quantify how likely they are to occur, but given that there are fairly obvious risk factors here, we have to manage the consequences of those risks and accept that we cannot do much about some of them. For example, if there is going to be a global trade war we cannot control that. We have to make sure that if those risks come to pass we will be able to deal with the consequences.