Dr. Siobhán Kavanagh:

On the eight-week reserve, I think we will find that very difficult to do this year. Our main aim at the moment is to try to maximise forage production. We are probably in peak growth at the moment or we are heading into it. We are putting out messages at the moment to get farmers to close as much silage ground and get out as much fertiliser as possible to get a decent first cut. It is hard to make up ground on the second cut if there is not a decent first cut. That is our main focus now.

As Professor Boyle said, we will carry out a fodder census in the first week of July. That will give us a fair idea of where we stand in respect of the remainder of the year. Silage yields will be back maybe 20% to 30% on where they would be at normally. There is ground to be made up. Many dry stock farmers are reliant on a very good first cut and may not make a second cut. They will now have to rely on a second cut to make up that deficit. The first focus will be to try to maximise forage production within the farm gate, whether that is a first, a second and possibly even a third cut in some cases. We will do the fodder budgets in early July and then at least the farmers can make up their minds. Some grains may be an option also as the Chair mentioned. Whole crop grains could be an option as well as on-farm storage of grains, and some of the brassica crops may also be an option for some people. Kale will be gone at that stage but there will be other options such as rapeseed, tyfon stubble turnips and some of these other grazing in situ crops that may help to reduce the demand.

Outside of the farm gate, we are looking at those type of options or buying in grain off the combine and storing it on the farm, where that is possible. It will come back then to stock numbers when people are doing those budgets. The initial budget will be based on a normal winter. If there is a facility then, the eight weeks will be put in. I do not believe that we will build it. I think that will have to be done over the next two years. The hope is that next winter will not come bad and that we will not be not in the same situation. However, it is not realistic to try to build it over the coming winter.

Some people will have to look at stock numbers. On drystock farms, they may have to look at selling weanlings in the autumn rather than waiting until next spring. Cull cows may not be held on farms. In the context of dairy farms, we are looking at a relatively small number that are at these very high stocking rates. The typical stocking rate on dairy farms is 1 livestock unit per hectare. We grow approximately 11 tonnes of dry matter on dairy farms. That is roughly enough to sustain 1.8 to 2 livestock units. I refer to the guys above that. We have about 7,000 farmers in derogation. We do not have accurate figures on them but we are probably talking about half of them being at these very high stocking rates.

One lesson relates to the reserve and that is for everybody. The lesson for those with high stocking rates is that they should try to match grass-growing capacity with those rates. Our message has always been that one cannot expand unless one has the grass-growing capacity.

Professor Boyle mentioned soil fertility. Many more farmers will have to focus on this. We still have a problem with soil fertility. Some 13% of farmers have good soil fertility in terms of pH, phosphorus and potassium. That is still a major issue. The grazing block might be fine but many outside blocks are still struggling with soil fertility.

We are going to see more contract growing of feed for the heavily stocked farms. That will raise questions. Once one goes outside the farm gate to buy in feed, one is exposing oneself to high feed costs. In a low-milk-price scenario, one is more exposed and the system is less resilient. We are working on this, however. We have contracts in place. There are sample contracts for people to examine. We have done a little bit of work in that area. In my region - Wexford, Wicklow and Carlow - the take-up rate has not been great but we are going to have to build on that in the coming years.

There are two sides to the demand for fodder, namely the supply of fodder on the farm and the demand. I refer to the stock numbers. I am not sure that heavily stocked farms will reduce their numbers but they might look to outsource the contract-rearing of heifers and take them off farm. There has been some take-up on that but there is probably potential to do more.

With regard to grazing infrastructure, we saw the farms that are well set up this year in this regard and where it was possible to get out between the showers to do some grazing. Work needs to be done to improve the grazing infrastructure in order that stock can get out and graze more easily in between spells of bad weather.

Deputy Cahill mentioned farm infrastructure. The issue became very evident where stock had to be housed for long periods. We need to examine this. We need to do so in any event under the nitrates directive but, aside from that, the question of having adequate facilities to store feed must be borne in mind. We have seen dairy farmers who have expanded but who might not have expanded their silage pits to match. Therefore, an investment will be required. That will require money. The machinery required to spread fertiliser must be considered. I saw a response about farmers who manage to spread fertiliser earlier in the year. There was a big question as to whether there was value in it but the reality is that there was a good response.

The lesson for everybody is that we will have to put this reserve in place. It will not happen overnight. It will take a year or two to do it. On the other side, for the heavily stocked farms, winter feed budgeting will need to be done on a yearly basis. We are going to be charged with the job of running a campaign on this annually to get people to budget. This is always in the background when we are hosting discussion groups or dealing with clients, but perhaps we have not pushed for annual budgeting as hard as we should.

With regard to an early warning system, the likes of PastureBase will be a very useful tool for us to try to predict where we are going to have a fodder deficit. There is a little work done on satellite mapping so that grass covers, etc., can be mapped to try to predict a problem coming down the line. As Professor Boyle said, one of our problems is trying to establish exactly what stocks are on farm. I do not believe I have anything else to add.