Paschal Donohoe (Dublin Central, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

In answer to the first question about when the Brexit-associated risks will become clearer, I note that there will be a meeting of the European Council in June and another one in October. We will need to make progress on many of the key issues that matter to Ireland there. However, my expectation is that many of the things that will affect our economy's performance will begin to crystallise towards the end of this year. Things that will happen in the UK will affect the British economy and could in turn have a spillover effect beyond what we are considering at the moment. There are certain things we will be able to influence. We can do that politically, via the two engagements to which I have referred. However, there are other things that could happen in the British economy and British society which might well affect the prospects for 2019, 2020 and beyond. I think that those things will become clearer to us towards the end of the year. One thing that is worth saying, however, is that it is now far more likely than not that there will be a transitional agreement between the UK and the EU. It is for that reason that we have increased our growth forecast for next year now to approximately 4%. That is a change from when we last looked at this.

Regarding the figure of €206 billion and the effect of the NTMA thereon, I note that the agency's recent marketplace activity and what has happened over the past year has had two particular effects. The first is that our real interest rate has now been reduced. That currently stands at 2.7%. We expect that figure to decrease to 2.5% in 2019, and to reach 2.4% in 2020 and beyond. The second impact is that the period over which we will be repaying the debts has been pushed out.

In regard to any impact on floating rates within the Central Bank or any other non-traditional sources of revenue, we not expecting any other further change beyond what I have indicated already.

In answer to Deputy Broughan's fourth question about the impact of contract manufacturing on our national income, I add the very big caveat that while it is impacting the top-line figures that we are aware of - I said a moment ago that it could be between 1.5 and 2 points - it is not affecting the things I use to determine how much tax revenue we are likely to gain, or what the right tax policy is. That is why, for example, I do not say we should have increased Government expenditure last year by 7% or 8%. That is not how our real economy grew.