Paschal Donohoe (Dublin Central, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

I will take the last question first. Climate change fines do not form part of any liability that I expect to develop for next year. I will have to come back to the committee with potential scenarios beyond that, which I will do. It is correct to say that the potential for liabilities to be created via potential fines is a factor that I am considering, but I have not put figures against it in this. Were I to do so, I would probably look to do that and to clarify that as a risk in the economic statement, which I will do later on. I will come back to the committee with a horizon in terms of what those fines could be.

Our judgment and information is that the impact of contract manufacturing and some of the activities associated with it could be affecting our nominal top line rates of economic growth by between 1.5% and 2%. That is why, in this report, I am now talking about modified domestic demand and about GNI* because I believe it would be a fatal mistake to base tax or expenditure policy on those rates of economic growth, particularly given that the correlation between that kind of rate of economic growth and any increase in tax revenue is negligible. I will ask Mr. McCarthy to address the question about the impact on the convergence factor. On the fiscal space question and what is committed or uncommitted, I will give an update later in the year regarding resources for next year. At that point I will be better able to answer the Deputy's question.