Mr. Brian Power:

From the point of view of the GIS, the Deputy asked about the sort of system that is used. There is a system called ArcGIS, which is an off-the-shelf system in the first instance but has been built to accommodate the needs of the school planning system. It takes all the data we have to use and puts that into a spatial context in terms of a map of Ireland overall, which is broken up into 314 individual school planning areas. One of the reasons behind this is that we know what the national peaks are in terms of school enrolments. We know that primary enrolment overall comes to a peak in the current year and, nationally, should begin to fall back at that point whereas post-primary enrolments will continue to grow until about 2025. Unfortunately, that growth is not even across the country so it means we have to look at specific areas. That is the reason we break up the entire country into 314 school planning areas. They are largely post-primary feeder areas. Primary schools largely feed into post-primary centres and they could be single or multiple centres. We look at those as a cluster and that is what forms the very basis of each school planning area overall. The GIS allows us to take all the data from the enrolments from the primary and post-primary pupil databases, Ordnance Survey, the census and child benefit data for the nought to four age group because they are not currently in our school system.

These data are then attributed across the 314 areas, which allows us to determine potential growth in each area. We then project forward using enrolment figures.

The position is fairly stable because once we have figures on enrolments, the number of children aged four years and under and the number of children in school at each class, it is possible to make a reasonably accurate projection for each year. We then calibrate for intake patterns, by which I mean that while each school planning area will theoretically have a 100% intake from its area at primary and post-primary level, we know that, for a range of reasons, children attend either the nearest school, the school that suits parents or a school outside the school planning area. Some people live on the borders of school planning areas and will, therefore, fall into other areas. We identify whether there is a significant additional intake above 100% in each area or whether the intake falls below 100%. Our projections are made on the basis of an average of three years of the intake pattern because intake patterns are normally fairly stable. Again, we have to calibrate the system to take account of this.

The most recent national exercises did not include housing data. In 2013, new housing provision was at a low of 8,300 units. It is now increasing again and reached 19,200 units in 2017. There is a substantial impact in areas where new housing is being built through the local authorities or another system. This can have a significant impact on school planning in a particular school planning area.

We collect all the data from the local infrastructure housing activation fund, LIHAF, which drives much of the major housing development. New developments under the LIHAF process pass straight to An Bord Pleanála. We have also interact on an ongoing basis with local authorities on their local action plans, LAPs. As these project forward, the LAPs are not sufficiently strong to allow us to predict enrolments for schools. Some months ago, we sought from all local authorities updated information to clarify how many houses had been provided in the previous 18 months or were due to be delivered for the coming 18 months. We had to revert to some local authorities on the matter. We indicated that new developments of 100 units or more would be significant because 100 houses generate in the region of 1.2 primary classrooms based on house occupancy, average number of children per household and so forth. We make calculations on that basis. Given that 100 houses produces approximately one primary classroom, it was a reasonable number to choose. Unfortunately, we only received returns indicating developments of 100 or more units from some areas and we had to revert to the local authorities on the matter. If one has a school planning area in which there are several housing developments of 50 or 60 units each, this could be significant. Some local authorities returned figures on such developments. Others did not do so and we clarified the matter for them.

One of the issues we must be aware of in terms of new housing is internal migration. Obviously, people move from A to B within the country. New housing in some areas will have a take-up from within the area on the part of people who are renting. This means they will not necessarily generate new school places, whereas in other areas, particularly those in which major developments take place, there tends to be a large influx from a broad area outside the area and we must take account of this. While this process is not exact, this time, based on all the new developments, we have brought the system up to date by introducing these extra data which we did not use previously. From the point of view of how we finally access this, we also consider existing and planned school capacity. This is a major part of the work we are required to do in this area.

Some schools will have capacity and classrooms available and some schools will have planned capacity under our six-year programme. The three schools in question probably have planned capacity in addition to current capacity. We plan for this to meet future needs. We cannot replicate but it will be delivered because it is in the pipeline, notwithstanding delays. We factor in this extra new capacity which will also be delivered.

As a result of all of this, we arrive at a new figure for net demand for each of the 314 school planning areas. With primary school enrolments set to decline from 2018 onwards, we found that there will be either a fully stable or declining population in up to 75% of primary school planning areas, whereas the shoe is very much on the other foot in respect of post-primary schools. In some areas, up to 70% of school planning areas at post-primary level have some degree of increase. While this increase will be minor in some cases, in others it will be significant.

We use existing capacity, extended capacity, major projects or new schools to address these needs depending on the size and scale involved and the extent and duration of the demand. In some cases, demand will peak briefly before rapidly declining. We then address the issues of overall size in terms of the number and scale of schools, whether greater diversity is required in some areas and language in terms of English or Irish-medium schools. All of these factors enter the equation.

In terms of size, we have to address the issues of the need for sufficient scale and the best educational environment for the children in question, including with regard to choice of subjects and specialist facilities, particularly at post-primary level. Normally, we would not create small post-primary schools because they must be of a scale that gives students a broad choice of subjects and enables the provision of sufficient specialist facilities. At primary level, we normally provide schools that approximate in size to one standard each. As the pupil-teacher ratio at primary level is 26:1, the standard will be a class of 26 pupils, moving up from junior infants up to sixth class over eight years. Depending on size, we will provide an eight, 16 or 24-classroom school. In some cases, we will even provide schools with 32 classrooms. These schools are standard size but there are schools around the country that are non-standard size because they fit the population of the relevant area.

In post-primary schools, the normal standard size to give the best spread of opportunity for those attending a school that can accommodate 1,000 pupils. However, schools with between 500 and 800 pupils are not uncommon. The size will depend on demand. Post-primary schools are generally not provided where the scale is under 500, although there are some exceptions. When the peak is below this level, we try to extend the capacity of existing schools or provide what we describe as a regional solution, of which there are a number in the announcement of 42 schools.

That is where two contiguous school planning areas both have a need that is below that threshold but by putting the two together we can come up with a regional solution. Outside urban areas regional solutions are only practical for post-primary schools in most cases because they mean longer travelling distances, whereas in urban areas sometimes we can have one of those solutions for primary schools where areas are quite close to each other. Again, it all depends on where we perceive the growth to be. We use child benefit data for children up to four years of age to see exactly where the growth is in the school planning area. I take the point made by the Deputy earlier about some of the school planning areas being very big in size. That is true. It generally reflects the spread of the population.