Mr. Keith Walsh:

There would always be some concern, but the process I mentioned, whereby we tried to factor out the once-off payments during 2016, is our template in trying to adjust for that. Our forecasts are based on an assumption of no behavioural change. We look at what we think was raised in 2016 once the outliers and once-offs are excluded, what is happening in 2017 and what we think will happen in 2018. Based on that, we make an assumption or we draw a conclusion on what we think will happen next year. We are fairly confident that when once-offs are excluded, the activity levels for the last two or three years are actually quite stable where stamp duty is concerned. I have seen some commentary from industry groups or groups within the market suggesting that the figures are too high. That said, the figures and estimates that some of industry groups have produced look too low to me, considering the actual tax receipts that we collect and what they imply about a commercial base. Based on the tax receipts that we collect, that is, the actual money coming in, we are fairly confident that there has been a broadly stable base of around €8 billion or €9 billion in consideration values for non-residential property in the last couple of years. We do not have any reason to assume that will not continue, certainly for the next couple of years. I have not seen any convincing forecasts suggesting that level of activity will suddenly drop off. It may change over the longer term, but we are fairly confident that it is representative of recent years' trends.

It may change over a longer term, but we are confident that it is representative of the trend in recent years. The forecast is based on an assumption that there will be no behavioural change and that exemptions or reliefs will remain unchanged.

The Deputy mentioned consanguinity relief. We costed that measure and estimate that if it was applied at the new 60% rate and the age rule was removed, it would cost approximately €9 million per annum.