Michael D'Arcy (Wexford, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

I am reading out the note. In the context of €1,098 million in total receipts, the deficit behind the 2016 forecast was 5%.

It should also be noted that forecasting yields is becoming increasingly difficult with continued irregularities and fluctuations in tobacco clearances and tax receipts. While overall yields have continued to rise over the past three years, issues such as front-loading and a projected decrease in smoking prevalence have made accurate forecasting more problematic.

While 2016 has been an exception, in recent years traditional tax revenue forecasts, using the same price elasticity as used for the 2018 forecast, were in fact realised and projections for 2017 point to a similar positive outcome. In this regard, Revenue has indicated that a large volume of tobacco products are being cleared from warehouses and that an increase in receipts is expected for the remaining months in 2017.

Current estimates for revenue are that tobacco receipts will meet this year's forecast by the end of the year. All in all, I am satisfied that the forecast is solid. If there is a more dramatic shift in the level of consumption than the evidence points to at the moment, it will be welcome from a health perspective and the over-riding health policy. The figures are essentially on target for 2017. The figures for 2016 were over forecast while the figures for 2015 were under forecast. That is the position for the past three years. The figures for 2016 were below and for 2015 they were above forecast.