Eoghan Murphy (Dublin Bay South, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

I thank the Chairman and members. I am joined today by officials Mr. David Walsh, Mr. Paul Hogan and Mr. Niall Cussen. I welcome the opportunity to meet with the committee today on the draft national planning framework, entitled Ireland 2040: Our Plan. The Government has been working on this plan since the end of 2014 and there have been public consultations, regional events and debates, including by this committee and other joint committees, feedback from an expert advisory group and over 700 detailed submissions from a whole range of stakeholders.

The draft national planning framework has now been published for one final period of public consultation. As part of this consultation, a further series of regional seminars are being organised by each of the three regional assemblies, with the first one happening in Waterford this Friday. The conclusions of this committee will be very valuable in finalising the framework by the end of this year and in tandem with a new ten-year national investment plan.

The national planning framework is primarily about planning properly for what will be one of the fastest growing economies in Europe over the next couple of decades, focusing development in existing villages, towns and cities and realising the potential of our regions and our rural areas. There will be at least an extra 1 million people living in the Republic by 2040, taking the population to 5.75 million. This is a 20% increase. The all-island population will be roughly 8 million people by 2040. There will be an extra 600,000 jobs, mainly in the knowledge economy and in services. We will need at least 500,000 new homes for our growing population, and to meet the different housing needs of future generations. The population aged over 65 will double to 1.3 million people, or almost 25% of the total population over the next 20 years.

There are political, economic and environmental challenges to be aware of too. Brexit is the most obvious one, but also the future of the European Union and how it might evolve and how that might challenge us; the current risks to free trade being posed by the policies of certain countries and how this might impact on areas like foreign direct investment; technology and the changes it will bring, for how we work and where we live, planning for things like remote working, the shared economy, automation and artificial intelligence; communities, and protecting communities as we grow, providing better opportunities as we adapt, regenerating parts of our country that exhibit the signs of disadvantage and unrealised opportunities where we can, and because we must; and climate change. As recent events remind us, our climate is changing and we need to take both the immediate steps to adapt to those changes and put in train changes to address the drivers of climate change, by de-carbonising our way of life and taking advantage of the many opportunities that come from that.

The population of Ireland grew by 53,000 people in the year to April 2017. This is the largest increase since 2008. It is 1.1% year-on-year growth when the rest of the euro area was essentially static. Half the daytime population of Ireland’s three largest cities travel from outside the cities. One quarter of Leinster’s working population travel into Dublin each day. In 2016, 230,000 people commuted at least an hour a day each way, a 30% increase in long commutes in just five years. Just think about what that means for families in terms of quality of life. If we learnt anything from the so-called Celtic Tiger era, it was that our future does not lie in our people living in one location, and commuting up to 100 km away to work, juggling work and family lives and losing the battle to strike a reasonable balance. If Ireland continues to develop in the way it always has, with our cities and towns growing fastest at their edges, not in their centres, with our regions and regional cities underperforming, we face a lose-lose strategy for both our urban and rural areas and the people who live and work in them. Therefore, our national planning framework has to have a vision that will navigate us through these challenges, both the existing ones we know of like revitalising our communities, creating better opportunities, improving quality of life and protecting the environment as well as the challenges that may face us in the future due to developments external to us.

Building on our strengths, we are in the top ten when it comes to human development, GDP per capita, foreign direct investment and democracy. However, in tackling the challenges, we fall into the top 20 when it comes to quality of life and environmental performance, particularly the relative carbon footprint per capitacompared to our EU neighbours, and we fall into the top 30 when we talk about liveable cities.

We have undertaken extensive economic and demographic analysis with the help of the ESRI to plot out different scenarios and see which ones make the best use of our resources, our existing communities, our economic, social and environmental opportunities. We have come up with an approach, outlined in the draft framework, that sets out the most sustainable and balanced vision. When we look at the growth of 1 million people and where they might live, we have to try to manage that growth between our five big cities, as well as between our three regions. That means that 25% of national growth should be happening within Dublin, and half of that within the M50. We will need joined-up planning across the local authorities involved, as well as new long-term land plans, for example the redevelopment of the Long Mile and Naas roads. It means another 25% of our forecast growth happening in the cities of Cork, Waterford, Limerick and Galway. Each will have to effectively double in population size at least. Much of Limerick’s growth should be within the Georgian core, while Waterford has significant potential along the North Quays.

Half of the total population growth, almost half a million extra people, will happen everywhere else, spread across our villages, towns and wider rural areas. Another way to look at it is that half of the total anticipated growth will take place on the eastern seaboard and in the midlands, and the other half will take place in the southern, western and northern regions. This all has significant implications for how we develop our urban and rural places.

If we think back to that quality of life challenge, we must ensure we are creating lasting communities where people can avail of greater opportunities as well as benefit from better standards of living, including access to high quality education and excellence in healthcare, which are specifically addressed in chapters five and nine. Recognising that by 2040, a quarter of our population will be over the age of 65 this in turn means planning for a greater level of people with disability or other health needs and their quality of life, within communities. This includes affordability, being able to live close to work, at an affordable price, so that people can live their lives the way they choose to. The draft strategy included in this framework addresses all communities and consequently and its implementation is designed to benefit all people, without exception.

We have had spatial strategies before. They failed to deliver on their potential, so how will the national planning framework be different? First, it is going to be aligned across Government Departments and agencies, so there will be coherence between what the framework envisions and what others are planning, be it in regard to schools, hospitals or roads. For the first time, the national planning framework will align with a ten-year national investment plan. We are putting our money where our mouth is. Second, our capital investment will underpin our planning framework so that these plans are real and realisable. Third, the national framework will be the bedrock or foundation for a new tier of plans at regional and local levels which will provide a coherent and joined-up vision between the different levels of planning, implementation and monitoring. The framework will be completed this year.

Next year, our three regions will be tasked with coming up with more specific regional, spatial and economic strategies. These will be based upon the framework and will set out in more detail what is needed and will be prioritised to deliver on the vision. Thereafter, city and county plans and local area plans will be based upon those regional plans. This will be the new hierarchy, and it will be set down in law, through the Planning and Development (Amendment) Act 2016 that is currently progressing through the Dáil.

We intend to put in place a smart growth fund to enable regions and local authorities to target growth and development for key areas by competing for additional funding based on the merits of the project and as long as it is in line with the ten-year national investment plan and the national planning framework. There will also be a more streamlined approach to the strategic management of a very considerable landbank of publicly owned lands in and around our key cities and towns. In too many cases they are currently lying idle and are not making the contribution they should be to our economic and social development in many areas, including housing and job creation.

I expect this morning’s session to be very fruitful in terms of gaining valued input and feedback from all present in the room today, as well as from the many submissions that are likely to be made on the draft framework by the 3 November deadline. We would especially value the input of members in areas specific, but not limited, to elements of implementation such as alignment with the capital investment plan, land management and more innovative forms of implementation.

I thank the committee for its time. I am happy to answer any questions or address any issues that members may have.