Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees
Tuesday, 26 September 2017
Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach
Banking Sector in Ireland (Resumed): Allied Irish Banks
4:00 pm
Mr. Bernard Byrne:
We have mentioned the fact that supply is not normal at this point in time, so there is a characteristic in the market that is not normal. Therefore, there is a scarcity value associated with residential property. I do not think it is a scarcity value that is associated with the commercial real estate, CRE, side. That is a different point. On the residential side, perhaps a comfort point exists around the ultimate construction cost and the development cost of properties relative to the pricing that exists in the market. There is quite a bit of evidence to suggest that pricing needed to rise in the context of a whole series of things. I am happy to give my thoughts, for what they are worth, in respect of those things. However, effectively, the construction costs that exist at this point in time and the development costs of the entire cycle are in line with where prices are getting to as opposed to being completely distorted relative to where prices are at this stage. That, coupled with the affordability piece, which means that affordability is very strong, and macroprudential, as we said, gives protection around that, means that in the market, where prices are at this point in time, it is likely that there will be a significant number of buyers for a very long period of time who can afford those properties. That, coupled with the pricing aspect from a development point of view, suggests that it is not in a bubble space.
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